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Sunday, May 6, 2012

Lock Poker....Dead or Alive??

It's Sunday. I know! Two blogs in two days! What the hell? Okay...I'm not trying to be Matthew Chang...but seriously...whassup!???

Just finished reading Kai Landry's new blog...where he is giving the masterful breakdown to his "Buy 1% KaiShares for New Orleans" pyramid scheme! And of course, as a team player I pledged to buy 3 shares at $35 per share, in exchange for 3% of his total action in NOLA this next week.

I did my spot on Scott Clark's radio show...his inaugural show on the internet Blog Radio network. It went pretty good I guess. Not sure how many, if any of you, heard it. No real earth-shattering material was covered. His show happens to be sponsored by Lock Poker.

Last night on Lock...I managed to bubble a final table, actually kind of blew that one...since the only pay spot worth a shit was 1st and 2nd...I gambled that I had this guy. I was wrong. I went out 10th. Whatever. had a couple of min cashes throughout the day and then finished up by losing about $75 playing PLO after upping my stakes a bit. Couldn't believe me river beats I took...fucking ill.

So a little while ago, I get a message on Facebook from Michael Hallen telling me he just saw a Twitter from John Aguiar warning anyone and everyone that they should get their money (if they have any) off of Lock ASAP...as this was his posted message:

Get your money off @lockpoker immediately!!! Seems they are making moves to get control of player funds and leave merge #warningsigns
Retweeted by Michael Laake

Now I don't even really know what this means. Who is trying to take control of players' funds? Lock Poker? The government? Great...stands to reason...I finally get on a site where I am enjoying a little success, running $34 two weeks ago up to $455 with two wins, a couple of seconds and a bunch of min cashes...and sure enough...its probably about to vanish. I run good. Or maybe its just someone with an ax to grind causing an uproar out of spite. That's the problem with shit like this...if you take heed, it ends up being a false alarm. If you ignore it, you end up regretting it. You can't really make a 100% decision with any high degree of confidence. Perfect.

So...if one of you REALLY knows the deal with Lock Poker...will you please let me know??? THANKS!

Four days til New Orleans. Can't freaking wait! I really feel good things coming for this event. And if I do have a great event...what comes next? Not really sure. Squirrel is off work until July. And I already know she wants to go home in June so all her family and friends up there can meet Carley. Will I be allowed to go to Vegas? Will I even want to? If I have a REALLY good NOLA event...I would probably want to just stay home for the summer with my baby. And maybe just fly out to Vegas the first week of July and play the Main Event. Kind of hard not to take a shot at $10m! Especially when I have a better chance than (in my opinion) 75% of the field. 

I have been spinning around a couple thoughts in my head regarding Las Vegas this summer. One thing I have NEVER, in 7 years gone...is play a complete schedule at Rio. Granted...three of those summers were interrupted by my nice little 2.5 year ban from the summer WSOP (even though I was able to play circuit events) that finally ended last year, finally. I think the most events I've played in any summer at WSOP was 4. I cashed once, back in 2006 I think...in the $2k. I've played the Main Event now...wow, three? Or four times. And every time I went out in Day 3. Twice with QQ. Once after flopping top set. Sweet memory that one.

I happen to be a pretty firm believer that were I to play a full schedule...and by full schedule I don't mean EVERY single event. That's almost physically impossible. Nor would I want to. While playing that event...you simply HAVE to take days off while you are there. It's such a mental grind...that those days to just chill out, spend a day at the pool, maybe the gym...or just going off and taking a hike in the hills...keep you fresh and focused. And motivated to succeed. You sit there day after day after day getting run down, sucked out on, donked out on...and you start to lose hope, and desire...and finally, your motivation just dies too. You're just there because you have nowhere else to go. Or you're chasing your losses. It sucks. It sucks huge. I mean it when I say it. There is NO better place to be when you are running good than Vegas...and no WORSE place to be when you're running like shit.

Excuse me, I got off topic there. I am...as I was saying, a pretty firm believer that were I to play a full schedule for the WSOP...I would have a very, very good chance at cashing about 5 or 6 times..and winning $500k or more. And by full schedule, I mean playing about 15-20 events.

(6)  $1000 buy in tourneys (all NL)
(10)  $1500 buy in tourneys (most NL, some Omaha)
(1)  $2500  buy in tourney (NL)
(1)  $3000 buy in tourney (NL)
(1)  $5000 buy in tourney  (NL)
and of course
(1)  $10,000 WSOP Main Event  (NL)

Grand Total (20 events)  $41,500

I've been rolling the idea around in my head now for a few weeks about pitching this 'offer' to someone with deep pockets. Someone who knows me as a player. And who obviously trusts me. I typically play for a 60/40 or 50/50 split...depending on the stakes and other factors. But for the WSOP? For what could be a sort of 'last resort' make-it-or-break it run for me before settling in to fatherhood...and having to be content to just play 3 or 4 events a year...instead of the 10 or so I have been playing the last five years. I think due to the value associated with ALL of the WSOP events, it offers a huge amount of upside to playing for a smaller percentage than usual. 

The only downside...which is easily remedied, is if you score a major hit. You would have to pay the taxes on the full amount. So...say I entered into a 70/30 deal with one investor...and I took 3rd in the $1500 for $485,000? My share would be just a shade under $150k. And my taxes on that would be a good amount already. But the taxes on the other $300K? I would have to pay those too...and my profit would almost be eaten up paying those taxes. A big loser for me! So the solution? pretty simple really. Either document the shared winnings, and get a separate W2 (or whatever form it is) for your investor. That...or take 35% of their winnings ($300,000) and use it to cover the taxes yourself. Either way...you can't ignore the tax implication...because the IRS sure as shit doesn't. 

I wasn't sure if I wanted to float this idea BEFORE the New Orleans event...or after. Float it after...and maybe I will have had such a great event in NOLA that I don't WANT to get a backer. Or maybe even have a good event...but still want a backer anyway, but get in late, after a lot of those guys have already thrown their saddle on other 'horses.'  Float the idea before...and actually lock someone up...then go destroy the NOLA event...maybe even top 3 the Main Event...then lament that I'm stuck now playing for 30/70 all summer. Because one thing I don't ever do? I don't ever renege on a deal. If I tell a guy..."Yes, I WILL play for you...30/70...in 20 events this summer...for a total of $41,500" then you know what? That is what I do. Period. If I want to play some events for 100% of the action...then there is always Venetian on my days that I don't play one of those other 20 events. Or Golden Nugget, Binions...or other Rio events like those massive $200 2nd chance tourneys they started.

Did you all know...the Rio added MORE space to their already massive tourney. Even though they had a SHIT TON of tables last year...they still were having to close registration for a lot of tourneys...even pushing back start times a lot...because they didn't have enough tables. Well, this year...I am told they now have enough tables to seat 8000 players! Yeah! Not kidding! My buddy who works for the WSOP told me they were going to employ...what was the number? I want to say 1300. DEALERS! Crazy!!! I mean...we are talking about some HUGE prize pools in those $1k and $1500 events. I think the biggest field they had last summer in those was around 3200 players. They will destroy those numbers! It's awfully hard NOT to be excited about this summer's WSOP.

So...yeah, if you want to single-handedly take my action this summer...such that I can tell my wife..."Wife, we have a deal to play a full schedule, with the chance to come home with millions...may I have your permission and blessing to pursue this?" Then let me know. Most of you know how to contact me. If not...the email works best.  ThePokerMonkey1@aol.com 

Brandon Jarrett sent me something a couple weeks that opened my eyes. That website, Hendon Mob...apparently they publish a list of the players with the most lifetime cashes. I am at #97...in the world...EVER. Wow. I found that pretty surprising. And cool. In looking at the list...they are missing 6 or 7 cashes too. CardPlayer's website has me listed with 110 cashes, compared to 106 on Hendon.  And the fine folks from New Orleans Harrah's...who ran the Winter Bayou Classic last December...never did (even after promising me they would) get around to reporting all the cash finishes from their tourneys there. I had 3 cashes in that event...including the Main Event. 

They wonder why we care about that stuff! Well, that's one good reason. Try getting a backer and not being able to find any results on the guy. We pay our fee as players...and one of the expectations, is that they will simply email the results to the poker media. Not that much to ask, I don't think. So far in 2012...I have a total of 16 (mostly reported, some nightly wins and cashes NOT reported) cashes, on a very limited schedule. I'm pretty sure that's the most I've had this early in the year since I started playing. The only problem...they are all mostly min-cashes. But I know a good score is coming. Just requires patience and a bit of good luck. 

Maybe when I'm back in New Orleans this week, I can badger those guys about turning those results in from December...I'm pretty sure I'm not the only player annoyed by those results not getting turned in and posted.

Okay...it's movie night here in the Souther household. I gave the dogs baths today...and downloaded three movies (which took forever...this U-Verse internet isn't as lightning-fast as I was led to believe it would be) on my XBOX360 that aren't available yet on Redbox...'Contraband.' 'Haywire,' and 'God Bless America' which hasn't been released in theaters yet. Not sure how that works. But it looked hilarious. So after watching Squirrel fly around cleaning all day (typical Sunday) I finally got her to sit down so we can watch some movies together.

Oh...by the way...update on ESPN 'situation.' Apparently my emails to them were enough to nudge them into restoring my chat privileges on the ESPN.com message boards. Ahhhh...my world, as I know it, has been restored to nearly complete normalcy.

MONKEY

2 comments:

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Zin said...

Sup Monkey, Lock Poker is leaving Merge Network on June, 1st 2012, Lock Poker bought Cake Poker and is going to become Revolution Gaming, the players on Lock Poker should have nothing to worry about from what i know.